{"id":1919,"date":"2021-07-08T14:28:50","date_gmt":"2021-07-08T13:28:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/centre-for-epidemiology\/?p=1919"},"modified":"2021-07-12T09:05:04","modified_gmt":"2021-07-12T08:05:04","slug":"pain-forecast-how-to-predict-chronic-pain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/centre-for-epidemiology\/2021\/07\/08\/pain-forecast-how-to-predict-chronic-pain\/","title":{"rendered":"Pain Forecast: How to Predict Chronic Pain"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[et_pb_section bb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; admin_label=&#8221;section&#8221; fullwidth=&#8221;on&#8221; next_background_color=&#8221;#000000&#8243; global_module=&#8221;322&#8243;][et_pb_fullwidth_menu global_parent=&#8221;322&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.0.106&#8243; menu_id=&#8221;7&#8243; submenu_direction=&#8221;downwards&#8221; fullwidth_menu=&#8221;off&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221; module_class=&#8221;main-navigation&#8221; \/][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section bb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; specialty=&#8221;on&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.0.47&#8243; prev_background_color=&#8221;#000000&#8243; next_background_color=&#8221;#1d1d1d&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;2_3&#8243; specialty_columns=&#8221;2&#8243;][et_pb_row_inner _builder_version=&#8221;3.0.47&#8243; locked=&#8221;off&#8221;][et_pb_column_inner type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; saved_specialty_column_type=&#8221;2_3&#8243;][et_pb_post_title featured_placement=&#8221;above&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.0.106&#8243; locked=&#8221;off&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_post_title][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;3.17.6&#8243;]<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW247879196 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW247879196 BCX0\">In 2016, <span class=\"TextRun BCX0 SCXW248866942\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun BCX0 SCXW248866942\">researchers at the Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis conducted<\/span><\/span>\u00a0a national smartphone study,\u00a0<span class=\"TextRun BCX0 SCXW248866942\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun BCX0 SCXW248866942\">called Cloudy with a Chance of Pain,<\/span><\/span> to investigate the\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"ContextualSpellingAndGrammarError SCXW247879196 BCX0\">age old<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW247879196 BCX0\">\u00a0belief that weather influences pain. We asked people to track their symptoms using a smartphone app and then used the GPS within the phone to pull their local weather data.\u00a0<span class=\"TextRun SCXW171019714 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW171019714 BCX0\">More information about\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW171019714 BCX0\">the <span class=\"TextRun SCXW114061877 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW114061877 BCX0\">Cloudy with a Chance of Pain\u00a0<\/span><\/span>study i<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW171019714 BCX0\">n this <a href=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/368251060\">video<\/a>, where\u00a0<span class=\"TextRun SCXW114061877 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW114061877 BCX0\">Professor Will Dixon (the research lead)\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"ContextualSpellingAndGrammarError SCXW114061877 BCX0\">explains<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW114061877 BCX0\">\u00a0more about the results and on their\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cloudywithachanceofpain.com\/\">official website<\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"TextRun BCX0 SCXW248866942\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun BCX0 SCXW248866942\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW164342296 BCX0\">We\u2019re<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW164342296 BCX0\">\u00a0now planning to use\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW164342296 BCX0\">the data collected in this study<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW164342296 BCX0\">\u00a0to build what we\u2019re calling a <em><strong>pain forecast\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><span class=\"TextRun BCX0 SCXW183906362\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun BCX0 SCXW183906362\">for patients with chronic pain. A<\/span><\/span>\u00a0bit like a weather forecast our goal is to create model that can predict pain your pain in the near future.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"TextRun BCX0 SCXW248866942\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun BCX0 SCXW248866942\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW164342296 BCX0\"><span class=\"EOP SCXW117348165 BCX0\">Watch the video with\u00a0Claire Little,\u00a0PhD researcher at the\u00a0Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis, who is conducting the pain forecast research:\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1080\" height=\"608\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ilPrhU2YGGA?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"TextRun BCX0 SCXW248866942\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun BCX0 SCXW248866942\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW164342296 BCX0\"><span class=\"TextRun SCXW117348165 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-GB\" xml:lang=\"EN-GB\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW117348165 BCX0\">To make sure that this pain forecast provides information that would be useful to you and other patients with chronic pain, <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW117348165 BCX0\">we\u2019re<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW117348165 BCX0\">\u00a0organising a focus group and a national questionnaire.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW117348165 BCX0\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Focus Group<\/h2>\n<p>You are invited to attend a focus group if you:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Have a chronic pain\u00a0condition<\/li>\n<li>Are aged 18 or\u00a0over<\/li>\n<li>Are willing to attend a focus group on Zoom (assistance will be provided)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Participants will be asked to attend a\u00a090 minute\u00a0focus group meeting to discuss:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Variations of your pain over time<\/li>\n<li>Outcomes that would be useful to you from a pain forecast<\/li>\n<li>Building a questionnaire to learn about people\u2019s views across the\u00a0UK<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: left\">Please take time to read the full information provided here: <a href=\"https:\/\/documents.manchester.ac.uk\/display.aspx?DocID=56024\">Information Sheet for Focus Group (PDF)<\/a><\/p>\n<p>You are not required to provide consent at this stage. However, it may be useful to know what we would need you to consent to by participating in the focus group. A copy of the consent form is here:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/documents.manchester.ac.uk\/display.aspx?DocID=56025\">Consent form for Focus Group (DOC)<\/a><\/p>\n<p>If you have any further questions about the study, please contact Claire Little at\u00a0<a href=\"mailto:claire.little@postgrad.manchester.ac.uk\">claire.little@postgrad.manchester.ac.uk<\/a>\u00a0or her supervisor John McBeth at\u00a0<a href=\"mailto:john.mcbeth@manchester.ac.uk\">john.mcbeth@manchester.ac.uk<\/a>. If you would rather talk on the phone, please send us a contact number and we will call you back.<\/p>\n<p>If, after reading the information above, you are interested in participating in the focus group, please complete this short questionnaire to fill in your details:<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_button _builder_version=&#8221;3.17.6&#8243; button_text=&#8221;Participate in Focus Group&#8221; button_url=&#8221;https:\/\/www.qualtrics.manchester.ac.uk\/jfe\/form\/SV_bddNLTbx4f2jlmS&#8221; \/][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;3.17.6&#8243;]<\/p>\n<h2>Questionnaire<\/h2>\n<p>Later in the year, we will be sending out a questionnaire.<\/p>\n<p>You are invited to complete the questionnaire if you:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Have a chronic pain\u00a0condition<\/li>\n<li>Are aged 18 or\u00a0over<\/li>\n<li>Have access to a smartphone, laptop or tablet to take the\u00a0questionnaire<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>More information will be sent later in the year. If you have not signed up for the focus group but would like to receive the questionnaire, please leave your details here:\u00a0link.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for your support in our study!<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_button _builder_version=&#8221;3.17.6&#8243; button_text=&#8221;Take Part in Upcoming Questionnaire &#8221; button_url=&#8221;https:\/\/www.qualtrics.manchester.ac.uk\/jfe\/form\/SV_0uiHJpQ4D3zBsBU&#8221; \/][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;3.17.6&#8243;]<\/p>\n<p>Thanks for your support in our study!<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_post_nav in_same_term=&#8221;off&#8221; prev_text=&#8221;Previous&#8221; next_text=&#8221;Next&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;3.0.106&#8243; locked=&#8221;on&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_post_nav][et_pb_comments _builder_version=&#8221;3.16&#8243; header_font_size_tablet=&#8221;51&#8243; header_line_height_tablet=&#8221;2&#8243; custom_button=&#8221;on&#8221; button_text_color=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; button_use_icon=&#8221;off&#8221; 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[et_pb_line_break_holder] --><\/pee>                                                                                                                                                                                                                      <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><pee><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><\/pee>                                                                                                                                                                                                                      <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><pee> <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><\/pee>                                                                                                                                                                                                                      <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><\/p>\n<li><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> <a href=\"https:\/\/instagram.com\/officialuom\/\"><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/\/assets.manchester.ac.uk\/phase1\/templates\/images\/icon-instagram-50.svg\" alt=\"Instagram page for The University of Manchester\" width=\"40\" height=\"40\" \/><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --> <\/a><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><\/li>\n<p><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><pee><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><\/pee>                                                                                                                                                                                                                      <!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><pee><!-- [et_pb_line_break_holder] --><\/ul>\n<p>[\/et_pb_code][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In 2016, researchers at the Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis conducted\u00a0a national smartphone study,\u00a0called Cloudy with a Chance of Pain, to investigate the\u00a0age old\u00a0belief that weather influences pain. We asked people to track their symptoms using a smartphone app and then used the GPS within the phone to pull their local weather data.\u00a0More information about\u00a0the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3621,"featured_media":1963,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/centre-for-epidemiology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1919","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/centre-for-epidemiology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/centre-for-epidemiology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/centre-for-epidemiology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3621"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/centre-for-epidemiology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1919"}],"version-history":[{"count":18,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/centre-for-epidemiology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1919\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1968,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/centre-for-epidemiology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1919\/revisions\/1968"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/centre-for-epidemiology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1963"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/centre-for-epidemiology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1919"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/centre-for-epidemiology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1919"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/centre-for-epidemiology\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1919"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}