{"id":1621,"date":"2020-05-13T18:38:37","date_gmt":"2020-05-13T17:38:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/mui\/?p=1621"},"modified":"2020-05-21T18:12:40","modified_gmt":"2020-05-21T17:12:40","slug":"pandemic-3-0-and-the-cities-game-from-crisis-to-transformation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/mui\/2020\/05\/13\/pandemic-3-0-and-the-cities-game-from-crisis-to-transformation\/","title":{"rendered":"Pandemic-3.0 and the Cities Game \u2013 from crisis to transformation | Joe Ravetz"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[et_pb_section bb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; admin_label=&#8221;section&#8221; fullwidth=&#8221;on&#8221; next_background_color=&#8221;#000000&#8243; global_module=&#8221;322&#8243;][et_pb_fullwidth_menu global_parent=&#8221;322&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;3.0.106&#8243; menu_id=&#8221;7&#8243; submenu_direction=&#8221;downwards&#8221; fullwidth_menu=&#8221;off&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;dark&#8221; module_class=&#8221;main-navigation&#8221; \/][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section bb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; fullwidth=&#8221;off&#8221; specialty=&#8221;on&#8221; prev_background_color=&#8221;#000000&#8243; next_background_color=&#8221;#1d1d1d&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;2_3&#8243; specialty_columns=&#8221;2&#8243;][et_pb_row_inner locked=&#8221;off&#8221;][et_pb_column_inner type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; saved_specialty_column_type=&#8221;2_3&#8243;][et_pb_post_title _builder_version=&#8221;3.0.106&#8243; title=&#8221;on&#8221; meta=&#8221;on&#8221; author=&#8221;on&#8221; date=&#8221;on&#8221; categories=&#8221;on&#8221; comments=&#8221;on&#8221; featured_image=&#8221;on&#8221; featured_placement=&#8221;above&#8221; text_color=&#8221;dark&#8221; text_background=&#8221;off&#8221; locked=&#8221;off&#8221; parent_locked=&#8221;off&#8221; \/][et_pb_text _builder_version=&#8221;3.17.6&#8243; background_layout=&#8221;light&#8221; parent_locked=&#8221;off&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p>The Covid-19 pandemic has brought a multitude of deaths, the lock-down of huge populations, and the decimation of economies, not least in the UK. \u00a0But here we take a forward look on cities and settlements of many shapes and sizes \u2013 not only as grey areas on the map, but as the many layered matrix for lifestyles and livelihoods.\u00a0 The pandemic and the immediate responses, in lockdown and distancing, decimation of public transport and others, have sucked life-blood from our cities. If and when the pandemic is contained, will the cities bounce back to the old, or bounce forward to a \u2018new normal\u2019?<\/p>\n<p>Cities in this part of the world change relatively slowly, but here are there are major disruptions such as political conflict or economic collapse, and it seems the Covid-19 is one of these.\u00a0 To explore such disruptions, and ways to turn such crisis towards opportunity, we have to think out of the box, beyond normal limits. Here visual thinking and\u00a0<em>\u2018mind-gaming\u2019<\/em>\u00a0is really useful, as part of a synergistic toolkit for problems of deeper complexity.[1] So this blog is a brief sketch with a creative angle, for the challenge of turning our urban crisis towards urban opportunity. This first instalment raises the questions, projecting what\u2019s in motion: the next will respond with pathways for opportunities\u2026<\/p>\n<h2>The Cities Game<\/h2>\n<p>The\u00a0<em>Cities Game<\/em>\u00a0here is one of a series, the\u00a0<em>Corona-Games<\/em>, following the emerging\u00a0<em>Pandemic-3.0<\/em>\u00a0agenda (see\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.urban3.net\/\">www.urban3.net<\/a>\u00a0).\u00a0\u00a0 As for the\u00a0<em>Pandemic 3.0<\/em>, this is about how communities organizations or societies can learn, think, create and collaborate collectively, to turn the pandemic crisis into new opportunities \u2013 a kind of\u00a0<em>collective pandemic intelligence<\/em>. This in turn draws on the new thinking in\u00a0<em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.routledge.com\/Deeper-City-Collective-Intelligence-and-the-Pathways-from-Smart-to-Wise\/Ravetz\/p\/book\/9780415628976\">Deeper City<\/a>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1608\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/mui\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/171\/2020\/05\/Fig-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"999\" height=\"1457\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/mui\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/171\/2020\/05\/Fig-1.png 999w, https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/mui\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/171\/2020\/05\/Fig-1-206x300.png 206w, https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/mui\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/171\/2020\/05\/Fig-1-768x1120.png 768w, https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/mui\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/171\/2020\/05\/Fig-1-702x1024.png 702w, https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/mui\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/171\/2020\/05\/Fig-1-150x219.png 150w, https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/mui\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/171\/2020\/05\/Fig-1-250x365.png 250w, https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/mui\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/171\/2020\/05\/Fig-1-350x510.png 350w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 999px) 100vw, 999px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0<em>Cities Game<\/em>\u00a0is played by city builders, investors, agents, designers, providers, managers &amp; many kinds of users of spaces and places.\u00a0 Each in their way will respond to the crisis and damage and disruption, and look for new opportunities, in a kind of real-life\u00a0<em>Monopoly<\/em>\u00a0game. The challenge is that all too often the \u2018winners\u2019 will win more, while the \u2018losers\u2019 will lose more \u2013 in this case not only living and livelihood, but life or death itself (shown as the mortality gradient of rich and poor).[2]<\/p>\n<p>This game is arranged in four key questions about what to change:\u00a0 the city order, the people, the spatial pattern, or the rules of the game?<\/p>\n<p>The first question is how to change the \u2018order\u2019 of the city? On current trends it seems quite logical to separate out the different zones of safety and value (although going against many current principles of urban planning and urbanism).\u00a0 Here are some basic combinations for the residential sector:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><em>High value \/ high safety\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>suburbs and ex-urbs \u2013 gardens and home-work-spaces for knowledge-based professionals.<\/li>\n<li><strong><em>Low value \/ high safety<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0quarantine zones for recent cases and incoming travellers etc, with high levels of contagion management, surveillance and social control.<\/li>\n<li><strong><em>High value \/ low safety<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0care homes and similar institutions, where full contagion management is difficult, and high death rates are accepted for residents and workers.<\/li>\n<li><strong><em>Low value \/ low safety zones<\/em><\/strong>: high density estates and neighbourhoods, lacking private space or enclosures, where manual or high-contact workers are at higher risk.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And for the services sector:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><em>Material production \u2013\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><em>(technical value \/ high contact):\u00a0<\/em>Industrial zones are already distanced with social management to lower risk;<\/li>\n<li><strong><em>Personal services \u2013\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><em>(human value \/ high contact):\u00a0<\/em>Health &amp; care zones \u2013total testing \/ tracing \/ tracking;<\/li>\n<li><strong><em>Knowledge production \u2013\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><em>(human value \/ low contact):\u00a0<\/em>education and knowledge based service zones \u2013 information goes online \u2013 interaction goes outdoors;<\/li>\n<li><strong><em>Consumer services \u2013\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><em>(technical value \/ low contact)<\/em>: Shopping &amp; leisure zones \u2013 logistics online \u2013 interaction at distance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A second type of question explores the possibility of social and lifestyle change. Will the people accept the wearing of full haz-mat suits in higher risk locations such as public transport? (and will the suits be available?) Will people go to restaurants fitted with glass safety screens?<\/p>\n<p>The third question is more about the structure of spaces and places. This is not something which can be changed overnight, but if there are existing trends, such as the decline of retail high streets, the crisis and its spatial response could accelerate them, and generate new opportunities.\u00a0 So here are some of the key pillars of urbanism, with possible headlines for what lies ahead:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Urbanisms of high density gathering, in dense vibrant centres of food and drink, leisure and culture. Can we look for other kinds of spaced out\u00a0<strong><em>\u2018dist-urban-ism\u2019<\/em><\/strong>?<\/li>\n<li>Multi-functional mixed communities and neighbourhoods: with the disruption to jobs and services and interactions, we could talk about the\u00a0<strong><em>\u2018social not-work\u2019<\/em><\/strong>\u2026<\/li>\n<li>Universities based on creative interactions, set in a physical playground of intensive learning or campus. This sector is especially vulnerable to change, with strong pressure in the direction of a\u00a0<strong>\u2018<em>zoomi-versity\u2019<\/em><\/strong><em>.<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Manufacturing industry or logistics with trained local labour force, already under pressure to merge into the global platform of logistics and worker-free automation now known as\u00a0<strong><em>\u2018Amazonia\u2019<\/em><\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The fourth question is really to sum up the winners and losers so far, and then ask, so what?.\u00a0 As the pressure ramps up for lower density \/ higher safety living and working space, the winners will be the construction sector and those already in the desired zones. Meanwhile the \u2018losers\u2019 will be the majority in higher density \/ lower safety areas, along with whole cities which are likely to sprawl and dissipate.\u00a0 The implication is the search for positive synergies and urban opportunities for all, is ever more urgent.<\/p>\n<h2>Societal transformations \u2013 by accident or design?<\/h2>\n<p>Meanwhile there\u2019s a bigger picture, where cities are the spatial layer of other systems \u2013 the social, technology, economic, ecological, political and cultural (\u2018STEEPC\u2019 for short).\u00a0 We can follow each of these domains, around the material facts of the pandemic, in the centre of a nexus of inter-connections. As sketched on the left of\u00a0<em>Figure 2<\/em>, each of these involves not only material facts such as economic growth, but the underlying layers of discourse and myth between all involved.[3]\u00a0 And for each part of the\u00a0<em>nexus<\/em>\u00a0there\u2019s also a potential counter-case, shown in the\u00a0<em>connexus<\/em>\u00a0on the right, where we can map out the synergies and cultivate the seeds of transformation.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1625\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/mui\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/171\/2020\/05\/Fig-2-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"986\" height=\"521\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/mui\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/171\/2020\/05\/Fig-2-1.png 986w, https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/mui\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/171\/2020\/05\/Fig-2-1-300x159.png 300w, https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/mui\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/171\/2020\/05\/Fig-2-1-768x406.png 768w, https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/mui\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/171\/2020\/05\/Fig-2-1-150x79.png 150w, https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/mui\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/171\/2020\/05\/Fig-2-1-250x132.png 250w, https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/mui\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/171\/2020\/05\/Fig-2-1-350x185.png 350w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 986px) 100vw, 986px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In the\u00a0<strong><em>social domain<\/em><\/strong>, the pandemic response locks down all forms of direct social interaction, along with one third of economic activity in service consumption: it also exposes the gaps and shortfalls in public services, and the underlying inequality and exclusion. \u00a0However there\u2019s a resurgence of social and cultural values, organizations and systems, from singing on balconies to a mass volunteering in the health service.<\/p>\n<p>For\u00a0<strong><em>technology<\/em><\/strong>, the door is open ever wider for techno-corporate surveillance and financial-ization: while local businesses go down, and while community apps and 3D printing emerge, the global \u2018GAFA\u2019 platforms are expanding without limit.\u00a0 Meanwhile in a possible future world of distancing and \u2018contactless community\u2019, the same digital platforms and networks will be indispensable.<\/p>\n<p>Production in the global\u00a0<strong><em>economic system<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0has been through possibly its greatest ever shock and reduction of GDP, with untold suffering from the newly sick, unemployed, uninsured and homeless. However there are new patterns of part-time and home-working, along with a new questioning of materialist debt-fuelled production and consumption.<\/p>\n<p>For the\u00a0<strong><em>ecological and climate<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0agenda, the pandemic slowdown has brought clear skies for the first time in generations, even while climate change, species extinction and toxic overload continues. \u00a0While international cooperation will be more difficult, it seems possible that in a post-pandemic era, new forms of the green deal will emerge along with non-material lifestyles.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Political implications<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0spread in all directions \u2013 the most obvious being the extraordinary acts of the state underwriting businesses and workers (in many countries) \u2013 and the most extreme where large (tax-avoiding) corporates carve up the multi-billion bailouts.\u00a0 Again in a post-pandemic era we look for pathways for transformation, with new political-social-economic games in play, and a potential emerging\u00a0<em>collective political intelligence<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Scientific knowledge<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0and expert practice in a post-truth society may yet emerge as the source of trust and confidence. But the massive uncertainties in the basic science are now entangled with existential controversies:\u00a0 it seems\u00a0<em>post-normal science<\/em>\u00a0is one way to approach this, if it can link \u2018science\u2019 with other forms of knowledge.[4]<\/p>\n<p>And coming back round to\u00a0<strong><em>cities and settlements<\/em><\/strong>, as above the current trends are pushing towards low density, distanced, virtualized, segmented urban forms \u2013 at the same time as newly found aspirations for local communities, mutual aid and public service.<\/p>\n<p>The main question here is how cities can best respond, and make the choice between alienation, and a\u00a0<em>Pandemic-3.0<\/em>\u00a0kind of transformation. In this they might need the \u2018<em>pathways from smart to wise\u2019<\/em>\u00a0which are beginning to emerge:\u00a0<em>collective financial intelligence<\/em>, integrated positive health systems, inclusive social mesh-works, synergistic business-enterprise models, deliberative-associative multi-level governance, and so on.<\/p>\n<p>And more than any one of these, the Pandemic-3.0 agenda calls for a\u00a0<em>collective intelligence<\/em>\u00a0which can realize the new potential from the ashes of the old.\u00a0 For which, see the next instalment\u2026<\/p>\n<p><strong>Joe Ravetz, May 2020.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>[1] Waltner-Toews, D, Annibale Biggeri, Bruna De Marchi, Silvio Funtowicz, Mario Giampietro, Martin O\u2019Connor, Jerome R. Ravetz, Andrea Saltelli, and Jeroen P. van der Sluijs. (2020)\u00a0<em>PostNormal Pandemics: Why Covid-19 Requires A New Approach To Science.\u00a0<\/em>Discover Society:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/discoversociety.org\/2020\/03\/27\/post-normal-pandemics-why-covid-19-requires-a-new-approach-to-science\/\"><em>https:\/\/discoversociety.org\/2020\/03\/27\/post-normal-pandemics-why-covid-19-requires-a-new-approach-to-science\/<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<p>[2]\u00a0Inayatullah, S, and Black, P, (2020).\u00a0\u00a0<em>Neither A Black Swan Nor A Zombie Apocalypse: The Futures Of A World With The Covid-19 Coronavirus.<\/em>\u00a0Journal of Futures Studies.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/jfsdigital.org\/2020\/03\/18\/neither-a-black-swan-nor-a-zombie-apocalypse-the-futures-of-a-world-with-the-covid-19-coronavirus\/\">https:\/\/jfsdigital.org\/2020\/03\/18\/neither-a-black-swan-nor-a-zombie-apocalypse-the-futures-of-a-world-with-the-covid-19-coronavirus\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>[3] ONS (2020)\u00a0<em>Coronavirus (COVID-19) related deaths by occupation, England and Wales: deaths registered up to and including 20 April 2020<\/em>. ONS Statistical Release<\/p>\n<p>[4]\u00a0Ravetz, J, (2020),\u00a0<em>Deeper City: collective intelligence and the synergistic pathways from smart to wise<\/em>. NY, Routledge.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.routledge.com\/Deeper-City-Collective-Intelligence-and-the-Pathways-from-Smart-to-Wise\/Ravetz\/p\/book\/9780415628976\">https:\/\/www.routledge.com\/Deeper-City-Collective-Intelligence-and-the-Pathways-from-Smart-to-Wise\/Ravetz\/p\/book\/9780415628976<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_post_nav _builder_version=&#8221;3.0.106&#8243; in_same_term=&#8221;off&#8221; show_prev=&#8221;on&#8221; show_next=&#8221;on&#8221; prev_text=&#8221;Previous&#8221; next_text=&#8221;Next&#8221; locked=&#8221;on&#8221; parent_locked=&#8221;off&#8221; \/][et_pb_comments _builder_version=&#8221;3.0.106&#8243; show_avatar=&#8221;on&#8221; show_reply=&#8221;on&#8221; show_count=&#8221;on&#8221; background_layout=&#8221;light&#8221; header_font_size_tablet=&#8221;51&#8243; header_line_height_tablet=&#8221;2&#8243; custom_button=&#8221;on&#8221; button_icon_placement=&#8221;right&#8221; button_text_color=&#8221;#ffffff&#8221; button_use_icon=&#8221;off&#8221; locked=&#8221;on&#8221; parent_locked=&#8221;off&#8221; button_text_size__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_text_size__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_one_text_size__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_one_text_size__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_two_text_size__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_two_text_size__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_text_color__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_text_color__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_one_text_color__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_one_text_color__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_two_text_color__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_two_text_color__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_border_width__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_border_width__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_one_border_width__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_one_border_width__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_two_border_width__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_two_border_width__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_border_color__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_border_color__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_one_border_color__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_one_border_color__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_two_border_color__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_two_border_color__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_border_radius__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_border_radius__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_one_border_radius__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_one_border_radius__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_two_border_radius__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_two_border_radius__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_letter_spacing__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_letter_spacing__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_one_letter_spacing__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_one_letter_spacing__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_two_letter_spacing__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_two_letter_spacing__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_bg_color__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; button_bg_color__hover=&#8221;null&#8221; button_one_bg_color__hover_enabled=&#8221;off&#8221; 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