{"id":1501,"date":"2019-10-03T15:06:13","date_gmt":"2019-10-03T14:06:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/sci\/?p=1501"},"modified":"2022-05-20T11:40:19","modified_gmt":"2022-05-20T10:40:19","slug":"dont-bet-on-the-un-to-fix-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.manchester.ac.uk\/sci\/2019\/10\/03\/dont-bet-on-the-un-to-fix-climate-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Don\u2019t bet on the UN to fix climate change"},"content":{"rendered":"

[et_pb_section bb_built=”1″ admin_label=”section” fullwidth=”on” next_background_color=”#000000″ global_module=”322″][et_pb_fullwidth_menu global_parent=”322″ _builder_version=”3.0.106″ menu_id=”7″ submenu_direction=”downwards” fullwidth_menu=”off” background_layout=”dark” module_class=”main-navigation” \/][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section bb_built=”1″ fullwidth=”off” specialty=”on” prev_background_color=”#000000″ next_background_color=”#1d1d1d”][et_pb_column type=”2_3″ specialty_columns=”2″][et_pb_row_inner locked=”off”][et_pb_column_inner type=”4_4″ saved_specialty_column_type=”2_3″][et_pb_post_title _builder_version=”3.0.106″ title=”on” meta=”on” author=”on” date=”on” categories=”on” comments=”on” featured_image=”on” featured_placement=”above” text_color=”dark” text_background=”off” locked=”on” parent_locked=”off” \/][et_pb_text _builder_version=”3.17.6″ background_layout=”light” parent_locked=”off”]<\/p>\n

It\u2019s failed for 30 years.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re constantly encouraged to think of the next big climate summit, conference or protest as the most important one, the one that is about to make the all-important breakthrough. The UN\u2019s Climate Action Summit<\/a> on September 23 in New York is no different. The UN\u2019s Secretary General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres is calling on world leaders to come with concrete and realistic plans to bring their national net carbon emissions down to zero by 2050.<\/p>\n

But amid the hype, it\u2019s worth putting this UN summit in context against the history of 30 years of such international meetings. Is it a vain hope for 197 countries to agree on any meaningful climate action at all, especially when it involves so much money and power?<\/p>\n

Scientists knew from the late 1950s<\/a> that carbon dioxide was building up and that this could be a problem. By the late 1970s, they knew it would be \u2013 it was just a question of when. By 1985, at a workshop of scientists in Villach, Austria,<\/a> the answer became \u201csooner than we thought\u201d.<\/p>\n

Scientists and activists mobilised and in 1988 the stars aligned. An American drought<\/a>, a NASA scientist called James Hansen willing to stick his neck out<\/a> and an international conference<\/a> in Toronto meant politicians had to respond.<\/p>\n

On the 1988 American presidential campaign trail, George Bush Senior promised<\/a> to convene a global conference on the environment at the White House to \u201ctalk about global warming\u201d. But when it finally happened it wasn\u2019t truly global<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was born the same year, endorsed by the UN general assembly, and produced its first report in 1990<\/a>. By then, there had been fine declarations of motherhood-and-apple-pie in various European cities, such as the Hague<\/a> and Bergen<\/a>. However, negotiations towards an international treaty to do something about climate change itself did not begin until<\/a> February 1991. The world\u2019s media largely ignored them, as the 1991 Gulf War was underway.<\/p>\n

UNFCCC birth pangs<\/h2>\n

Very little progress was made \u2013 a sign of things to come \u2013 and with a hard deadline of May 1992 approaching, a month before the world\u2019s nations were to gather in Rio de Janeiro for an \u201cEarth Summit\u201d, powerful countries were at loggerheads<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The birth pangs of this search for an international UN treaty on climate change still shape what is and isn\u2019t possible today.<\/p>\n

The sticking point was \u2013 and still is \u2013 what the US government, and the business lobbies behind it, would find acceptable<\/a>. The French government was keen that any treaty include actual commitments to reduce CO2 emissions, with targets and timetables for the rich nations. The Bush government warned that if these were included in the text they would not attend the Rio summit, leaving any treaty languishing. The French blinked, the UK acted as a middleman, and a deal was done.<\/p>\n

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) became law in March 1994<\/a>, two years after the Rio summit.<\/p>\n

The French, and others, had hoped that once the UNFCCC was signed and ratified, they could quickly address the question of rich country commitments to reduce CO2 emmissions. But this didn\u2019t happen.<\/p>\n

When the Kyoto Protocol<\/a>, which extended the UNFCCC, was agreed in 1997, despite the fact that carbon trading and other economic instruments within it were designed to keep the Americans happy, no serious commitment to reductions was made. The Americans then pulled out of the implementation process of the Kyoto Protocol<\/a> in 2001, when George W Bush became president.<\/p>\n

The process staggered on and there was another helping of motherhood-and-apple-pie at Copenhagen in 2009. Finally, in 2015 a non-binding Paris Agreement was cobbled together, based on a previously discarded \u201cpledge and review\u201d mechanism<\/a>, which has created an endless round of promises that haven\u2019t been met.<\/p>\n

The scientist who had warned that climate change was upon us in 1988 \u2013 James Hansen \u2013 called the Paris Agreement a fraud<\/a>, and since 2015, many<\/a> nations are failing to meet their Paris commitments. Even if they did, global average temperature rise this century would be far in excess<\/a> of the two degrees above pre-industrial levels that the deal is supposed to ensure.<\/p>\n

The US pulled out of the Paris agreement in June 2017<\/a>. A clear pattern has emerged.<\/p>\n

The role of the UN<\/h2>\n

Some would argue that trying to get 197 countries to agree on anything is a fool\u2019s errand. For 20 years, critics such as the international relations expert David Victor have questioned<\/a> whether the UN is the appropriate venue for climate negotiations. Victor argues that such a forum is inevitably going to lead to gridlock. He\u2019s not alone in this \u2013 as early as 1983 some policy analysts in the US<\/a> were saying that such a global problem could not be solved because of the complexity of its politics.<\/p>\n

The counter argument is that if a deal is agreed outside of the UN process, between the world\u2019s major emitters \u2013 the EU, US and China \u2013 then it will be perceived as illegitimate, and will likely involve an even greater reliance on speculative technologies<\/a> than the current Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, it becomes a matter of trust: do those already suffering the impacts of climate change trust those who have caused it to sort it out.<\/p>\n

In my experience of talking to people who work in and around the UNFCCC\u2019s bodies, many speak knowledgeably without hesitation, deviation or repetition about the alphabet soup of climate change acronyms, but are completely oblivious of much of this awkward history. Yet what happened \u2013 straightforward veto power by the US of anything that would look like real action \u2013 remains with us today, and it doesn\u2019t help to pretend otherwise.<\/p>\n

Whether the world can a transition to sustainability \u2013 the stated aims of both the UNFCCC and the UN\u2019s Sustainable Development Goals \u2013 remains to be seen. But the stakes could not be higher. If political, economic, technological and cultural solutions aren\u2019t now found, the outlook for humanity \u2013 and the other species we share this planet with \u2013 is exceptionally bleak.<\/p>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n

This article is part of The Covering Climate Now<\/a> series<\/em><\/strong>
This is a concerted effort among news organisations to put the climate crisis at the forefront of our coverage. This article is published under a Creative Commons license and can be reproduced for free \u2013 just hit the \u201cRepublish this article\u201d button on the page to copy the full HTML coding. The Conversation also runs Imagine, a newsletter in which academics explore how the world can rise to the challenge of climate change. Sign up here<\/a><\/em>.\"The<\/p>\n

Marc Hudson<\/a>, Researcher, University of Manchester<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_post_nav _builder_version=”3.0.106″ in_same_term=”off” show_prev=”on” show_next=”on” prev_text=”Previous” next_text=”Next” locked=”on” parent_locked=”off” \/][et_pb_comments _builder_version=”3.0.106″ show_avatar=”on” show_reply=”on” show_count=”on” background_layout=”light” header_font_size_tablet=”51″ header_line_height_tablet=”2″ custom_button=”on” button_icon_placement=”right” button_text_color=”#ffffff” button_use_icon=”off” locked=”on” parent_locked=”off” button_text_size__hover_enabled=”off” button_text_size__hover=”null” button_one_text_size__hover_enabled=”off” button_one_text_size__hover=”null” button_two_text_size__hover_enabled=”off” button_two_text_size__hover=”null” button_text_color__hover_enabled=”off” button_text_color__hover=”null” button_one_text_color__hover_enabled=”off” button_one_text_color__hover=”null” button_two_text_color__hover_enabled=”off” button_two_text_color__hover=”null” button_border_width__hover_enabled=”off” button_border_width__hover=”null” button_one_border_width__hover_enabled=”off” button_one_border_width__hover=”null” button_two_border_width__hover_enabled=”off” button_two_border_width__hover=”null” button_border_color__hover_enabled=”off” button_border_color__hover=”null” button_one_border_color__hover_enabled=”off” button_one_border_color__hover=”null” button_two_border_color__hover_enabled=”off” button_two_border_color__hover=”null” button_border_radius__hover_enabled=”off” button_border_radius__hover=”null” button_one_border_radius__hover_enabled=”off” button_one_border_radius__hover=”null” button_two_border_radius__hover_enabled=”off” button_two_border_radius__hover=”null” button_letter_spacing__hover_enabled=”off” button_letter_spacing__hover=”null” button_one_letter_spacing__hover_enabled=”off” button_one_letter_spacing__hover=”null” button_two_letter_spacing__hover_enabled=”off” button_two_letter_spacing__hover=”null” button_bg_color__hover_enabled=”off” button_bg_color__hover=”null” button_one_bg_color__hover_enabled=”off” button_one_bg_color__hover=”null” button_two_bg_color__hover_enabled=”off” button_two_bg_color__hover=”null” \/][et_pb_text admin_label=”Related posts” _builder_version=”3.0.106″ background_layout=”light” locked=”on” parent_locked=”off”]<\/p>\n

Related<\/h1>\n

Related posts:<\/h3>
<\/div>
<\/div>
<\/div>

One Step Forward, Two Steps Back? Reflections on the role of Optimism and Pessimism in\u00a0 taking actio...<\/h2><\/div><\/div><\/a>
<\/div>

The SCI organised a workshop on the topic of meat consumption, non-meat consumption and sustainabili...<\/h2><\/div><\/div><\/a>
<\/div>

\u201cWe need to show people that there is a place for them in this transition\u201d: reflection on Green Jobs...<\/h2><\/div><\/div><\/a><\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n

[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column_inner][\/et_pb_row_inner][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”1_3″][et_pb_sidebar _builder_version=”3.0.106″ area=”sidebar-1″ orientation=”left” show_border=”off” background_layout=”light” locked=”on” \/][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section bb_built=”1″ admin_label=”Connect Title” custom_padding=”0px||0px|” _builder_version=”3.0.90″ background_color=”#1d1d1d” module_class=”footer-section” prev_background_color=”#ffffff” global_module=”380″][et_pb_row admin_label=”row” global_parent=”380″ locked=”off” allow_player_pause=”off” parallax=”off” parallax_method=”on” parallax_1=”off” parallax_method_1=”off” parallax_2=”off” parallax_method_2=”off” parallax_3=”off” parallax_method_3=”off” make_fullwidth=”off” use_custom_width=”off” width_unit=”on” use_custom_gutter=”off” make_equal=”off” module_id=”footer-row” _builder_version=”3.0.89″][et_pb_column type=”1_3″][et_pb_text admin_label=”Contact Us Title” global_parent=”380″ background_layout=”dark” text_text_color=”#ffffff” parent_locked=”off” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” background_size=”initial”]<\/p>\n

Contact Us<\/h4>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label=”Contact Us” global_parent=”380″ text_text_color=”#aaaaaa” parent_locked=”off” background_layout=”light” text_orientation=”left” use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid” module_class=”contact-us” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” background_size=”initial”]<\/p>\n

+44 (0) 161 306 6000<\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”1_3″][et_pb_text admin_label=”Find Us Title” global_parent=”380″ background_layout=”dark” text_text_color=”#ffffff” parent_locked=”off” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” background_size=”initial”]<\/p>\n

Find Us<\/h4>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label=”Address” global_parent=”380″ background_layout=”dark” text_orientation=”left” use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid” module_id=”address” parent_locked=”off” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” background_size=”initial”]<\/p>\n

The University of Manchester
Oxford Rd
Manchester
M13 9PL
UK<\/a><\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”1_3″][et_pb_text admin_label=”Connect Title” global_parent=”380″ background_layout=”dark” text_text_color=”#ffffff” parent_locked=”off” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” background_size=”initial”]<\/p>\n

Connect With Us<\/h4>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_code admin_label=”Social Media” global_parent=”380″ parent_locked=”off” _builder_version=”3.17.6″]<\/p>\n