Pain Forecast: How to Predict Chronic Pain

by | Jul 8, 2021 | Research | 0 comments

In 2016, researchers at the Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis conducted a national smartphone study, called Cloudy with a Chance of Pain, to investigate the age old belief that weather influences pain. We asked people to track their symptoms using a smartphone app and then used the GPS within the phone to pull their local weather data. More information about the Cloudy with a Chance of Pain study in this video, where Professor Will Dixon (the research lead) explains more about the results and on their official website

We’re now planning to use the data collected in this study to build what we’re calling a pain forecast for patients with chronic pain. A bit like a weather forecast our goal is to create model that can predict pain your pain in the near future. 

Watch the video with Claire Little, PhD researcher at the Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis, who is conducting the pain forecast research: 

To make sure that this pain forecast provides information that would be useful to you and other patients with chronic pain, we’re organising a focus group and a national questionnaire.  

Focus Group

You are invited to attend a focus group if you:

  • Have a chronic pain condition
  • Are aged 18 or over
  • Are willing to attend a focus group on Zoom (assistance will be provided)

Participants will be asked to attend a 90 minute focus group meeting to discuss:

  • Variations of your pain over time
  • Outcomes that would be useful to you from a pain forecast
  • Building a questionnaire to learn about people’s views across the UK

Please take time to read the full information provided here: Information Sheet for Focus Group (PDF)

You are not required to provide consent at this stage. However, it may be useful to know what we would need you to consent to by participating in the focus group. A copy of the consent form is here: Consent form for Focus Group (DOC)

If you have any further questions about the study, please contact Claire Little at or her supervisor John McBeth at If you would rather talk on the phone, please send us a contact number and we will call you back.

If, after reading the information above, you are interested in participating in the focus group, please complete this short questionnaire to fill in your details:


Later in the year, we will be sending out a questionnaire.

You are invited to complete the questionnaire if you:

  • Have a chronic pain condition
  • Are aged 18 or over
  • Have access to a smartphone, laptop or tablet to take the questionnaire

More information will be sent later in the year. If you have not signed up for the focus group but would like to receive the questionnaire, please leave your details here: link.

Thanks for your support in our study!

Thanks for your support in our study!